Page 12 - European Energy Innovation - spring 2018 publication

12 Spring 2018 European Energy Innovation

ROOFTOP PV SYSTEMS

The Rooftop Potential for PV
Systems In the European Union
to deliver the Paris Agreement

By Thomas Huld, Katalin Bodis, Irene Pinedo Pascua, Ewan Dunlop, Nigel Taylor, Arnulf Jäger-Waldau,
European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Directorate C: Energy, Transport and Climate, Energy Efficiency and Renewables Unit
Via E. Fermi 2749, TP 450, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy

On 4th November 2016 component to achieve the targets [2, i.e. 344 g CO2/kWh in 2016 and a
the Paris Agreement, 3]. In 2015, electricity represented only forecast of about 150 g CO2/kWh
which aims to limit the 18.5% of the final energy consumption in 2040, but this is still not sufficient
maximum global average but was responsible for 38 % of the for the necessary reduction of CO2
temperature rise as close as possible fossil fuel related and 31% of the emissions to 65 g CO2/kWh in order
to 1.5°C, came into force. However, the total CO2 emissions. It is interesting to meet the Paris Agreement [4]. Such
Nationally Determined Contributions to note that the emissions related a development is only possible under
(NDC’s) proposed by each country to the generation of electricity have the Sustainable development Scenario,
are so far not sufficient to reach this increased by 45% compared to the where electricity emissions in Europe
goal. The current policies in place to 40% total increase of CO2 emissions should decrease to 45 g CO2/kWh.
limit global greenhouse gas (GHG) between 2000 and 2015 [3].
emission are not sufficient to keep the So far the European Union has
temperature rise below 2ºC [1]. Global average of CO2 emissions per proposed a binding target of at
kWh of electricity was about 506 g least 40% domestic reduction in
As 68% of the world’s current in 2015 [3]. Under the World Energy greenhouse gas emissions by 2030
greenhouse gas emissions are Outlook 2017 New Policy Scenario, compared to 1990, and a 27% target
due to burning fossil fuels, the these emissions would fall to 325 g for renewable energy consumed
decarbonisation of our energy CO2/kWh by 2040. For Europe the in the EU in 2030. In January 2018,
supply is the single most important situation looks somewhat better, the European Parliament voted for
a binding target of 35% of energy
generation from renewable energies
by 2030. EU Member States must now
decide on their position and whether
or not they support this target. The
consequences for renewable electricity
would be that around 1 200 to
1 250TWh require to be generated
from solar and wind power to reach
this goal (Figure 1). Of this roughly
400 TWh would come from solar
power, about 20 TWh Solar Thermal
Power Generation and 380 TWh PV,
which would require close to 350 GW
PV capacity to be installed by 2030.

Fig. 1: European electricity production until 2030 to meet the 35% RES target However, with a total installed capacity
(extrapolation based on the impact assessment of the 2016 Market Design of about 108 GW at the end of 2017
Directive proposal [5]). and annual installations between
5.1 and 7.5 GW in the last four years
(Figure 2), it will be difficult to reach

www.europeanenergyinnovation.eu