Page 23 - European Energy Innovation - autumn 2019 publication
P. 23
Autumn 2019 European Energy Innovation 23
DIGITALIZATION
Digitalization has the While most of these processes are societal trends could lead to an
possibility to fundamentally getting more and more efficient, not increase in energy demand if they are
change the current ways all of them are designed in a way not countered by measures with a
things are done. From the that reduces energy. If we take the strong focus on saving energy.
digitalization in private households example of autonomous cars: the
(as for example voice control cars themselves will most certainly The objective of energy demand
systems, smart thermostats and be more efficient, drive in a more scenarios is to model future demand.
streaming operators), to digitalization efficient manner and by themselves These usually consider efficiency
in the transport sector (autonomous create less accidents and less traffic improvements and policy measures.
electric cars with smart loading jam. However, the more comfortable So far, they do not systematically
infrastructure), to increasingly autonomous driving gets and the include the effect of above described
digitalized processes in the industry more advantages it copies from the societal trends.
which can be highly optimized current transport mode of train riding
through automation. (e.g. being able to use the travel time Therefore, in 2018 Fraunhofer ISI
to work, read, sleep), the more likely conducted the “Study on Energy
it is that people who can afford it Savings Scenario 2050”. The aim of
will switch to this mode of transport. the study was to develop European
Thereby increasing their absolute energy scenarios that consider
energy demand, rather than decreasing potential societal trends in order
it. The effects of autonomous driving to quantify the changes in energy
on energy demand are thus manifold demand resulting from them.
and it is not straightforward to access
their overall impact. In their current Here fore, energy-relevant societal
study, Wadud et.al (2016) conclude trends were selected and quantified
that depending on the scenario the as far as possible based on detailed
total road transport energy in the studies and on extensive stakeholder
US might be reduced by 40% or consultation at the European level.
increased by up to 100% until 2050 The following three scenarios were
through automation. developed:
Another example is the development 1. In the Removing Market Barriers
of mobile phones. While getting Scenario, it was determined which
more efficient the additional (techno-economic) energy efficiency
services of today's mobile phones potentials could be realized by
need substantially more energy, (almost) cost-efficient investments.
including increasing energy demand
of datacenters. On the other hand 2. The New Trends Inefficient
today's mobile phones do not only Scenario is characterized by
provide new services, but also make strong, non-linear societal trends
previous commodities unnecessary that can result, for example, from
(such as cameras, Walkmans, rebound effects of the sharing
recorders, etc.) thereby reducing economy and digitalization. In
the number of appliances and their a “worst case” variant of this
lifetime energy demand. scenario, the trends cause
increasing energy demand
These examples show that the without the techno-economic
ways in which digitalization and energy efficiency potentials being
automation effects energy demand exploited.
are not trivial to access. At the same
time, trends such as digitalization – 3. The New Trends Efficient Scenario
but also other trends like the sharing is also characterized by strong,
economy, the circular economy or non-linear societal trends. This
urbanization – have huge potential to scenario determines how much
influence energy demand – negatively energy demand could decline
or positively – depending on their if trends contribute strongly to
characteristics. In particular, new reducing energy demand.
www.europeanenergyinnovation.eu
