Page 24 - European Energy Innovation - autumn 2019 publication

24 Autumn 2019 European Energy Innovation

DIGITALIZATION

Final energy demand (EU28) for all sectors in the three scenarios and the variant (Worst Case).
The graph shows also the contribution of the four large Trend Clusters in the case of the New
Trends Efficient Scenario

Final Energy Demand [Mtoe] 1800 Digitalization
1600 New Social and Economic
1400 Models
1200 Industrial Transformation
1000 Quality of Life
800 Worst Case
600 Baseline (Primes 2016)
400 New Trends Inefficient
200 Removing Market Barriers
New Trends Efficient
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Key findings: the case when digital processes demand could be up to 67% lower
• If the techno-economic potentials become more and more efficient, in 2050. This scenario is only
but also drastically increase in achievable if the trends unfold in a
- including the ones arising volume, therefore leading to an way that puts a decreasing energy
through digitalization - are increased energy demand (as demand first (supported by the
realized (in the Removing Market compared to the Removing Market respective legislation).
Barriers Scenario), final energy Barriers Scenario).
demand in Europe could decrease The work conducted for the “Study
substantially by up to 51% (relative • If, in addition, the techno- on Energy Savings Scenario 2050”
to the reference scenario). economic potentials are not summarizes existing knowledge on
realized, for example due to a the correlation between societal
• If there is no focus on reducing hesitant energy efficiency policy trends and energy demand in a
energy demand when developing (worst case variant), then final pioneering study. It clearly reveals the
societal trends (New Trends energy demand could increase strong influence that new trends can
Inefficient Scenario), this will substantially by 42%. have on energy demand. The “Study
counteract reductions achieved on Energy Savings Scenario 2050”
due to the techno-economic • If, in contrast, new societal trends was published in January 2019 and
potentials. This means, the are supported by a strong focus forms the prelude to more intensive
scenario only achieves a 32% on energy demand reduction (New research on the impact of new
reduction of European energy Trends Efficient Scenario), energy societal trends on energy demand. l
demand. This is for example

Brugger, H.; Eichhammer, W.; Dönitz, E. (2019): Study on Energy Savings Scenarios 2050.
https://www.isi.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/isi/dokumente/ccx/2019/Summary_Energy-Savings-Scenarios-2050.pdf

Wadud, Z., MacKenzie, D., Leiby, P., 2016. Help or hindrance? The travel, energy and carbon impacts of highly automated vehicles.
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 86, 1–18.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.12.001

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