Page 22 - European Energy Innovation - Spring 2017 publication
P. 22
22 Spring 2017 European Energy Innovation
SHIPPING
Shipping in Changing Climates
A multi-university and cross-industry consortium looking at the future of shipping in a carbon
constrained world.
By Dr Nishatabbas Rehmatulla, Research Associate, UCL Energy Institute (pictured)
of current global CO2 emissions, intensity will be required. Translating
without further action this share is this at the ship level, the aggregate
likely to rise in the future due to rising average operational CO2 intensity for
demand and emissions reductions all ship sizes of containerships, tankers
from other sectors. Shipping faces and drybulk (which account for 60%
unique set of challenges in the coming of emissions from shipping) requires a
decades due to a number of interacting reduction of 80-90% on 2012 levels by
factors, such as climate change (sea 2050 in the 2°C scenario and net zero
level rise, storm frequency); regulatory emissions in the 1.5°C scenario.
change (mitigation and adaptation
policy); and macroeconomic A HOLISTIC APPROACH
environment (increased global trade, In light of the challenge, five UK
and changing trade patterns). universities joined hands with leading
industry organisations to provide a
Shipping carries around 80% From the climate change perspective, holistic analysis and understanding on
of the volume of international the challenge for shipping is to the subject of the shipping system, its
trade and although the bridge the emissions gap between energy efficiency and emissions, and
high efficiency of deep-sea the business as usual scenarios to a its transition to a low carbon, more
shipping leads to it contributing 2-3% level consistent with limiting global resilient future. The £4m Shipping in
mean temperatures to 1.5°C or 2°C. Changing Climates (SCC) uses a whole
Figure 1 shows the gap between the systems approach to understand the
blue fan of BAU scenarios forecast scope for greater energy efficiency
in the Third International Maritime of the supply side, understand the
Organization (IMO) greenhouse gas demand side drivers and to understand
(GHG) study 2014, and the 2°C and the supply and demand interactions
1.5°C pathway. If shipping is required and potential future evolution in
to maintain its current share (2-3%) shipping. In recognition of the
of global CO2 emissions out to 2050, challenge of managing and delivering
steep supply side reductions in CO2 outcomes in a multi-university, multi-
disciplinary systems research, the SCC
Figure 1: Shipping emissions trajectories under various scenarios project is organised into three themes.
Theme 1 investigates the
interconnection of ship design
and performance analysis with
environmental conditions and
operational strategy validated using
real-world operator data to propose
improvements to existing vessels and
step-change solutions for future. The
Ship Impact Model (SIM) models the
design and operational performance
of all the components of the ship
together, which allows for the ship
performance (such as cargo capacity,
fuel consumption and emissions)
for many different design options
to be assessed and compared. Key
technologies for both potential new-
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