Page 61 - European Energy Innovation - winter 2018 publication

Winter 2018 European Energy Innovation 61
Decarbonisation of heat in
Europe: implications for
natural gas demand
By Dr Anouk Honore, Senior Research Fellow, Natural Gas Research Programme, Oxford Institute
for Energy Studies
Decarbonisation of energy
systems has become a
key topic in Europe as
both the European Union
(EU) and member states attempt to
achieve goals set out at the COP21
meeting in Paris to limit the impact
of the human race on global climate
change. The EU is committed to
reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions to 80-95 per cent below
1990 levels by 2050. So far, the
electricity sector has been the main
focus of low-carbon policies, but
if Europe is to meet its objectives,
decarbonisation efforts will need to
expand to other sectors, including the same efficiencies and not all will be
heating and cooling sector.
The heating and cooling sector is
the largest energy user in Europe,
representing about 50 per cent of
the final energy demand (data for
2015). Although the sector is moving
towards low carbon energy, about
two thirds of energy demand still
comes from the direct combustion
of fossil fuels (oil, coal, or natural gas)
and over 40 per cent comes from
natural gas alone [Figure 1].
The heating sector is responsible
for about two thirds of the gas
consumed in the EU. Any policies
to decarbonise heating in buildings
and process heating in industry will
have important consequences for
natural gas demand in the future, but
how much and by when is uncertain
and neither the impacts nor the
timeframes are likely to be uniform
across Europe.
The main focus of EU decarbonisation
policies for heating and cooling
production so far has been on
www.europeanenergyinnovation.eu
HEAT DECARBONISATION
two main categories of measures: available or desirable for all buildings
energy efficiency and the promotion or all industrial processes.
of renewables, essentially for final
energy demand although some work In the building sector, the main
is also being done on district heating options include efficiency
systems. The implementation of improvements (upgrade boilers,
low-carbon options faces critical develop CHP and fuel cells, and
energy challenges with few simple switch to more efficient heating
answers as heat can be produced systems, all of which could
by a wide range of technologies, and potentially still include natural gas as
for the end-user, there are many an input), raising the renewable share
options to choose from for their (replace fossil fuels by renewables,
heating systems, both in terms of install hybrid systems – which may
fuel type (energy input) and the include gas- and repurpose the gas
operating principle (appliances), network for hydrogen), electrify the
but not all these options have the heating sector from zero-carbon
electricity supply, and expand heat
Figure 1: Final energy demand for heating and cooling by fuel source in
the EU, 2015 (%)
0% 0%
1%
4%
8%
9%
42%
12%
12%
12%
Gas Oil Biomas Electricity District heating Coal
Others (fossil) Solar thermal Heat pumps Others (RES)
Source: Heat Roadmap Europe, a low carbon heating and cooling strategy
2050 (2017)