Page 62 - European Energy Innovation - winter 2018 publication
P. 62
62 Winter 2018 European Energy Innovation
HEAT DECARBONISATION
networks. Active policies promoting Figure 2: Role of the heating sector in natural gas demand by sub-sectors
low carbon options in buildings only of consumption, 2015 (%)
started in the early 2010s and the
effects may take time to materialise 12% 6%
in the European market where 1%
buildings are old and waste energy.
12% 21%
Reducing carbon emissions in the
industrial sector and reaching the 2%
2050 targets will essentially depend
on a mix of energy efficiency, 19%
electrification of heat (and heat 27%
recovery techniques), fuel switching
(to biomass or hydrogen as feedstock 0%
and/or fuel) and carbon capture Transformation (heating) Transformation (other)
utilisation and storage (CCU/CCS).
The heterogeneity across the sub- Residential (heating) Residential (other)
sectors and energy uses will be one Industry (heating) Industry (other)
of the main challenges in designing a
framework to decarbonise the sector Commercial (heating) Commercial (other) Other
as some sub-sectors will be more
complex to decarbonise than others, Note: The chart shows that most of the non-heating uses were in the
such as cement, steel, ethylene, power (transformation) sector, but the data available in the public
and ammonia for example, as these domain only shows derived heat produced in CHPs and heat plants and
are characterised by high emissions does not account for the share of electricity generation that is used for
from feedstock and also high- heating and cooling. As a result, the total share of natural gas used for
temperature heat processes. This last heating (and cooling) in the transformation sector should actually be
point is important because not all higher if it accounted for the use of electricity.
technologies and fuels are capable Source: Author’s calculations
of achieving high temperatures. As a
result, fossil fuels can be more easily technological development by then. future beyond the end of the next
displaced by traditional renewable The possible paths and options decade then it needs to develop a
energies for low-temperature for decarbonising the systems will strategy now not only for the power
applications, but not so much for multiply. Interestingly, most of the sector but also for potential changes
high temperatures heat. scenarios focus on the buildings in the heat sector as well. Interaction
sector, highlighting its importance and collaboration with electricity may
At least up to 2030, most current in the transition to a low-carbon be one answer, while developments
policy scenarios consider a relatively heating sector. Natural gas faces an such as the use of hydrogen and
modest decline in gas used for heating, increasingly competitive environment biogas may be another. l
which will be essentially concentrated with higher penetration of renewables
in space heating use in buildings. and electricity, but the total changes Further information:
This is explained by efficiency gains in gas demand by 2050 may still not
through thermal refurbishments be dramatic at the European level Dr Anouk Honore
and minimum energy efficiency (as shown for instance in the IEA Senior Research Fellow
requirements for new buildings and, World Energy Outlook, including their Natural Gas Research Programme
consequently, lower demand for space sustainable development scenarios). Oxford Institute for Energy
heating. On the contrary, energy use Studies
in the industry sector may increase Decarbonising the heating sector in 57 Woodstock Road
slightly due to favourable economic Europe will take time and probably Oxford OX2 6FA, UK
assumptions and fewer options to longer than many anticipate, and it Tel: +44 (0) 1865 889 132
improve energy efficiency than in the will necessitate additional measures. Email:
residential sector, especially in energy However, if the gas industry in its anouk.honore@oxfordenergy.org
intensive industries. current form is to have a long-term
The longer horizon to 2050 is more
complicated to assess due possible
www.europeanenergyinnovation.eu
